If you are a pragmatist, you sure would like make your technology investment decision after discounting all the hype that surrounds the emerging technologies. The task is not easy since among all the hype around the new technologies a real inflection point may be hiding – and you would definitely not want to miss that. What is the best way to do it?
You should start by asking the following questions …
- What are the specific trigger points that started the hype?
- How much has the technology moved in last one year?
- If the current trend continues then where will it be in one year time?
- What happens if you take no action on the specific technology for next one year?
In this post I will answer the first and the second question for all the technologies that are of interest to me. I will follow this up with subsequent separate posts where I will take a deeper dive and answer question 3 and 4 for each of the technologies. So, let me start …
| Technology | What are the specific trigger points that started the hype? | How much has the technology moved in last one year? | |
| Cloud Computing (Tortoise) |
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| Mobile Computing (Elephant) |
Mobile story is more than 10 years old and has already gone through one complete hype cycle.The trigger point for the current hype is: |
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| Web 2.0 (Chameleon) |
Tim O’Reilly & Dale Dougherty had coined the term in 2003. It was inspired by the success of, among others:
See the original article by Tim O’Reilly written on 2005. |
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| SOA (Phoenix) |
The basic concept of a service bus has been around since the 80?s. However, the term SOA was first used by Alexander Pasik in 1994.It became the “in thing” with the emergence of Web Services.
However, last year many experts pronounced the obituary of SOA. (see this & this) |
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| Agile Methodologies (Starfish) |
There was no well defined trigger point for agile methodologies – not even the formulation of the manifesto.
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The adoption rate slowly climbed over the years. It has been more like the Starfish than the Spider (what is Starfish vs. Spider? Explanation – Short & Long)The growth has been steady and recent survey points to impressive adoption. (see this, this & the original) | |
Author : Udayan Banerjee
Udayan is an IT industry veteran having started his career in 1977. He is currently Vice-President at NIIT Technologies Limited and is a avid blogger. Check out his linkedin profile and his blog.
