Boeing increases 20-year forecast for new jetliner deliveries
Boeing has revised its industry-wide annual forecast for new jetliner deliveries, raising it by 3% to a total of 43,975 over the next 20 years.
US planemaker Boeing presented its industry-wide annual 20-year prediction for new jetliner deliveries by 3% to 43,975, driven by the strength of passenger demand, climbing airline competition, and the eventual replacement of older, less efficient aircraft.
Updated Forecast
Boeing has revised its industry-wide annual forecast for new jetliner deliveries, raising it by 3% to a total of 43,975 over the next 20 years.
This upward adjustment is driven by strong passenger demand, growing airline competition, and the need to replace older, less efficient aircraft. The update was announced on the eve of the Farnborough Air Show, which kicks off on Monday just outside London.
Impact of the Pandemic
The aviation industry was severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a dramatic decline in air travel.
However, the sector has since rebounded strongly, resulting in heightened demand for new aircraft. This resurgence has exposed ongoing challenges related to labor and parts shortages, as well as supply chain disruptions.
Both Boeing and Airbus are grappling with these issues, leading to extended wait times for new planes.
Future Demand
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According to Darren Hulst, Boeing’s Vice President of Commercial Marketing, the forecasted demand for new airplanes will continue to rise through 2043.
The company predicts that single-aisle aircraft will account for the majority of deliveries, with an expected 33,380 units, representing 76% of the total forecast. Additionally, Boeing anticipates the delivery of 8,065 widebody planes, 1,525 regional jets, and 1,005 freighters.
Fleet Expansion and Replacement
Boeing projects that approximately half of the new jet deliveries will replace older models, while the other half will contribute to fleet expansion for airlines.
The global aircraft fleet is expected to nearly double over the next two decades, growing from about 26,750 jets in 2023 to 50,170 by 2043. The company has also increased its forecast for passenger traffic growth to 4.7% per year.
Ongoing Safety Concerns
Despite the positive forecast, Boeing continues to face challenges related to safety and quality. Since January, the company has been dealing with a safety crisis involving an Alaska Airlines 737 MAX 9, which experienced an in-flight emergency.
In response, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has imposed restrictions on Boeing, including a halt on expanding 737 MAX production until the FAA is satisfied with the company’s safety and quality improvements.
Conclusion
Boeing’s revised forecast reflects a robust recovery and ongoing demand in the aviation sector, despite the challenges the industry faces.
The company’s optimistic outlook for new jetliner deliveries underscores the critical role of replacing aging aircraft and expanding airline fleets to meet growing global travel needs.
